NAB flags strong revenue growth, supports Rudd's economic stimulas package to break the cycle

National Australia Bank's new CEO delivered his debut quarterly trading update for NAB, flagging strong revenue growth, broadening bad debt issues, increasing economic uncertainty and the clear and present danger that rising funding costs would prevent NAB from passing on the full amount of any future rate cuts.

The future is very uncertain and it is neither sensible nor realistic to
try to predict the future

The NAB boss's briefing was a sober bookend to a week that opened with the Commonwealth Bank's Ralph Norris confirming the CBA would deliver earnings stronger than market consensus, which was then punctuated by Suncorp's rush to recapitalise in the wake of a weakening earnings outlook.
But Clyne's commentary show it would be a mistake for anyone to imagine our banks will remain immune from the economic realities, either here or internationally.
There are tough and testing times ahead and the wave of bad debts that will inevitably be generated by our almost certain recession will hit bank profits and eat into their statutory capital.
As that happens, we can expect the banks to move with defensive vigour to protect their capital bases by trimming dividends and raising new capital, though either vanilla or hybrid equity.
Each of the banks, either formally or anecdotally, is reinforcing the same business themes.
Their revenues and pre-provision earnings have been buoyed by government underwriting and the rush to quality inspired by uncertainty and volatility. Bad debts are on the rise, however, and if unemployment reaches anything like the 7 per cent widely predicted by their own economists, the need for more severe collective provisioning will intensify. There is confidence that, even if unemployment hits about 7 per cent, the mortgage books will remain largely sound. There is a general expectation that, over the coming six months there will be a worrying and costly deterioration of the business lending books.
It is clear, for example, that having almost instantly squeezed the life out of the vulnerable at the top end of the corporate food chain, the global financial crisis is beginning to migrate to the small and medium business sector.
As Clyne said yesterday, the single names that forced NAB's $521 million worth of specific provisions over the December quarter have been well known for the best part of 12 months.
"But we are starting to see more general stress and deterioration in the SME book," he said.
Small and medium businesses are the core generator of entrepreneurial wealth and employment in Australia.
The real danger of a meaningful, extended recession in that sector is that it becomes almost self-perpetuating. A small business closes, causing unemployment, which in turn forces more businesses to shut their doors. And so on. That is why NAB's collective provision increased nearly 30 per cent to $303 million over its first quarter and that is why the Rudd Government has acted so quickly in deciding to spend $42 billion of our national surplus.
The aim is to provide a circuit breaker to prevent recession.

Barclays and Llyods bank on time to rush bonuses through

Banks that are dependent on UK taxpayer support are planning to rush out hundreds of millions of pounds in bonuses to senior bankers and traders before a threatened crackdown.
As ministers in Britain prepared to curb excessive remuneration, it emerged that Barclays and Lloyds Banking Group were poised to follow Royal Bank of Scotland by paying bonuses within weeks.
Lloyds, which has taken £17 billion ($38.1 billion) in rescue money from the Government, appears ready to give hundreds of millions of pounds to top executives and more junior staff.
Barclays, which has tapped the Bank of England for billions of pounds in loans and guarantees, is believed to be planning even larger payouts.
According to the terms of its purchase of the North American division of the collapsed Lehman Brothers, Barclays is due to pay $US2.5 billion ($3.8 billion) in bonuses to traders and dealmakers on Wall Street in the next few days.
Ministers reacted angrily to reports in The Times that RBS was preparing to give bonuses to thousands of senior bankers and traders. Banks applying for government insurance to underwrite toxic debt assets and free up cash for lending are likely to have to meet conditions preventing them paying excessive remuneration, officials said.
A White Paper to be published alongside the Budget in April will beef up supervision of banks by giving non-executive directors more powers to hold bank chiefs to account. However, senior bankers suggested that the clampdown would come too late to prevent bonuses being paid for 2008.
No final approval of bonuses has been made but UK Financial Investments, the Treasury body that owns the stakes in RBS and Lloyds, is prepared to see limited payouts as long as it is convinced that they are in the long-term interest of taxpayers.
Banks argue that bonuses will help to retain and attract good staff and so hasten the end of their need for government support. Many are obliged to pay them because of the wording of employment contracts.
Richard Pym, who earns £750,000 a year as executive chairman of the state-owned Bradford & Bingley, collects a £140,000 guaranteed bonus next month. The bonus, agreed upon before B&B’s collapse, has to be paid regardless of performance. Mr Pym will also collect a further bonus of £187,500 in respect of the first half of 2009.
Lloyds said that any director bonuses would be paid in shares at the end of 2009 and that staff bonuses would be lower than in previous years.
Barclays, which reports its annual results on Monday, is expected to pay large bonuses to the tens of thousands of employees in Barclays Capital. Last year, they were paid an average of £182,000 each.
Eight former Lehman high-flyers taken on by Barclays Capital in New York have reportedly been locked into contracts paying $US10-25 million a year.
Government officials said that all banks would in future have to adopt new incentive structures.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown expected decisions to reflect the conditions of the economy and the performance of the banks. “There are no rewards for failure in what we are proposing,” he said.
Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, warned the RBS that it risked alienating ordinary people if it gave its traders and bosses “exorbitant” bonuses.
George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, said: “It would be an insult to struggling taxpayers if the Government allowed banks we part own to pay out big cash bonuses. To increase taxes on people earning £20,000 to pay the bonuses of someone earning £2 million is totally unacceptable.”
Any measures in Britain are likely to fall short of the plans by US President Barack Obama to enforce a $US500,000 cap on the pay of bank executives bailed out by US taxpayers.
In Britain, officials at No 10 Downing Street, the PM’s residence, said Mr Brown agreed with Mr Obama that a new approach to rewards was needed, although it was not thought possible to introduce an industry-wide pay ceiling without breaking contracts.

Queensland banking and insurance giant Suncorp CEO quits

Banking, insurance and financial services big hitter Suncorp Metway was floored when chief executive John Mulcahy resigned, after the bank announced its interim after-tax profit to be between $250 million and $270 million after being hit with significantly higher bad debt charges.
Suncorp said its bad debt expenses for the half year to December 31, 2008, would rise to $355 million - "significantly above forecasts," it said - on specific provisions and write-offs.
Suncorp said its board would declare an interim dividend of 20 cents per share, fully franked, down from 52 cents per share for the previous corresponding period.
Interim profit before tax and items, including those related to the Promina acquisition, will be between $470 and $500 million, Suncorp said in a statement.
Mr Mulcahy has agreed to stay on while the company looks for a new chief executive.

Not happy bank! Australian banks earn $2 billion in fees and charges from their customers

The major Australian banks earned $2 billion more in fees and charges from their customers while hiking interest rates independently of the Reserve Bank.
New research published yesterday showed that in the year to June, the most recent figures available, banks accrued income from fees and commissions of $22.6 billion.
The result was well up on $20.48 billion they earned in the previous year and came as they were lifting, of their own accord, rates on mortgages, credit cards and personal loans.
The spate of rate hikes started in January when each major bank moved independently of the Reserve Bank, blaming the global financial crisis for increasing wholesale funding costs.
The round of rate hikes occurred on top of the Reserve Bank of Australia's two upward movements in official rates in February and March.
The figures published by the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority did not show the impact of the 300 basis points in cuts ordered by the Reserve Bank in the past four months.
However, some of the banks have not passed on the full cuts to customers, with ANZ and Westpac keeping some of of the reduction from the 100-basis point cut by the RBA this month in their profit margins.
The level of account fees paid by Australian customers has reached a record high, with at least $1.4 billion spent in the June quarter on transaction and lending activity.
MWE Consulting analyst Mike Ebstein, an independent researcher, said the increase in fees came as customers placed more money with the major banks.
"The year end June total is up on the year end of June 2007," Mr Ebstein said.
"But the last quarter went against the annual trend and the 10.4 per cent growth in fees and commissions was well below the growth in assets and deposits."
Despite the increase in fees, Australians have turned into fiscal conservatives, choosing to hoard cash out of the volatile financial markets.
Before the recent interest rate cuts, banks were offering deposit rates above 8 per cent in a bid to reduce their reliance on volatile funding markets. However, as official rates have been cut, deposit rates have been slashed.